Over time, my predictions have gotten steadily worse. They've been eliminated 11th (Kim P. in Africa), 11th (Robert in Marquesas), 2nd (Tanya in Thailand), 11th (Christy in the Amazon), 7th (Shawn in the Pearl Islands), 4th (Rob C. in All-Stars), 4th (Mia in Vanuatu) and... well, let's not even talk about my pick who didn't even really make it onto the show (Wanda in Palau).
I've never accurately predicted a winner, but some of my picks have at least made it past the merge. Let's take a look at the games the survivors love in Panama and try to deduce their chances of winning.
The Women
Cirie: Chess, Monopoly
Courtney: Risk
Danielle: Backgammon, Monopoly, Clue
Melinda: Taboo, Twister
Misty: Chess
Ruth Marie: Candy Land
Sally: Cribbage, Settlers of Catan, Scrabble, Uno, Yahtzee
Tina: no favorite listed
The Men
Aras: Parcheesi
Austin: Scrabble, Trivial Pursuit, Scattergories
Bobby: Risk, Boggle, Monopoly, Magic: the Gathering
Bruce: Risk, Scrabble
Dan: Go
Nick: Balderdash
Shane: Trivial Pursuit, Axis and Allies, Risk
Terry: Pictionary
The Analysis
The first thing we need to do is toss Tina off the island. If you don't have a favorite game, you don't belong here.
Now, let's look at the most common games:
Risk, 4
Monopoly, 3
Scrabble, 3
Chess, 2
Trivial Pursuit, 2
Every other game (Axis and Allies, Backgammon, Balderdash, Boggle, Candy Land, Clue, Cribbage, Go, Magic: the Gathering, Parcheesi, Pictionary, Scattergories, Settlers of Catan, Taboo, Twister, Uno, Yahtzee) was listed only once.
This list is more interesting than many have been. Settlers of Catan, a worldwide phenomenon that has sold millions of copies and continues to spread across the U.S., is at the top of my Top 10 Must-Have Games. I think this is the first time that Axis and Allies has been listed; the same holds true for Magic: the Gathering.
As for the competitors, I like Dan's choice of Go. It's a cerebral, thoughtful game that requires timing to go along with the right mix of tactics and strategy.
And as the only women who chose Risk, Courtney intrigues me.
But one player stands out head and shoulders above the rest this season. It feels too easy, but I have to pick Sally. She lists five games and by including The Settlers of Catan, she becomes only the second player in Survivor history to list a winner of the Spiel des Jahres award (Germany's Family Game of the Year award, probably the most prestigious game award in the world). The first player to choose a SdJ game was Ashlee in Palau, but she only listed that game (Rummikub) and no others. Sally's game favorites are extremely well rounded.
There you have it. No question.
Sally will win Survivor Exile Island.
