My predictions have been eliminated 11th (Kim P. in Africa), 11th (Robert in Marquesas), 2nd (Tanya in Thailand), 11th (Christy in the Amazon), 7th (Shawn in the Pearl Islands), 4th (Rob C. in All-Stars), and 4th (Mia in Vanuatu).
The average is that my pick gets eliminated 7th or 8th (closer to 7th). The trend, clearly, is that I'm getting worse.
But I'm going to do my best to turn that around with Survivor Palau. There are 20 contestants on this edition, more than ever before (previous editions had either 16 or 18 contestants.), and the previews make it clear that the game will be different. Take these quotes:
"From the beginning, the game will be changed in a dramatic way: everything the Survivors have come to expect will be wiped out in the first 10 minutes."
"What will they do when they discover they're lost for real?"
"Three castaways will be going home before this night (the premier) is over."
So, given that it seems much is changing for this edition of Survivor, it's a great time for me to finally pick a winner. First, let's look at all of the players' favorite board games, as listed at CBS.com.
The Women
- Angie - Solitaire, Mad Libs, Scrabble
- Ashlee - Rummikub
- Caryn - Scrabble, Monopoly, Pictionary, Taboo
- Janu - Monopoly, Chess, Backgammon
- Jennifer - Scrabble, Monopoly, Backgammon, Twister
- Jolanda - None
- Katie - Cranium, Scrabble
- Kim - Jenga, Checkers
- Stephenie - Scrabble, Monopoly, Pictionary
- Wanda - Mancala, Balderdash, Trivial Pursuit, Chinese Checkers, Chess
- Bobby Jon - Checkers
- Coby - Life, Monopoly
- Gregg - Trivial Pursuit
- Ian - Chess
- Ibrehem - Chess
- James - Monopoly
- Jeff - Dirty Minds
- Jonathan - Monopoly, Clue
- Tom - Trivial Pursuit, Cranium
- Willard - Scrabble
The total number of games listed (including repeats) was 40, an average of exactly two games per contestant. Six players -- all women -- listed three or more games, five players listed two games, and eight players listed one game. Jolanda saves me some time in the analysis, because there's no way someone who doesn't like board games will win Survivor. Jeff is almost as bad -- Dirty Minds? Come on. Not the choice of someone who likes strategy, and you need to like strategy to win Survivor. And Angie is the only person I'm aware of who thinks that Mad Libs is a board game (not to mention Solitaire).
That leaves us with 17 players to consider.
The winner of Survivor Vanuatu, Chris, liked Parcheesi, Checkers and Chess. Three classic strategy games. No one in Palau listed Parcheesi, but Chess and Checkers were fairly popular. However, no one listed both Checkers and Chess.
I like Ashlee's choice of Rummikub, because it won the Spiel des Jahres -- Germany's Family Game of the Year, a very prestigious award. But without having at least one more game to work with, it's hard for me to choose her.
Listing Clue is promising for Jonathan, since deduction -- figuring out who's lying to whom -- is a big part of what every Survivor winner has done. And Monopoly isn't bad either, showing a certain ruthlessness (the goal of the game, after all, is to completely eliminate every other player).
But I'm going with Wanda. Her choices of Mancala (ancient strategy game), Balderdash (convincing people that something you made up is true), Trivial Pursuit (general knowledge), Chinese Checkers (light strategy), and Chess (heavy strategy) should indicate the kind of mindset needed to win Survivor.
If she remembers it's a game, that is. Too many players take it too personally, and that never helps you advance.
UPDATE: Wanda didn't even really make it onto the show, being eliminated on the first episode. (Jonathan, whom I also highlighted, was also eliminated on the first episode.) Tom won it all.
