Over time, my predictions have generally grown worse. They've been eliminated 11th (Kim P. in Africa), 11th (Robert in Marquesas), 2nd (Tanya in Thailand), 11th (Christy in the Amazon), 7th (Shawn in the Pearl Islands), 4th (Rob C. in All-Stars), 4th (Mia in Vanuatu) and... well, let's not even talk about my pick who didn't even really make it onto the show (Wanda in Palau). For the 12th season, my pick was Sally -- a pretty good pick, since she was eliminated 9th.
I've never predicted a winner. On the plus side, about half of my picks have made it past the merge. Let's take a tribe-by-tribe look at the favorite games of the Cook Islands contestants and try to deduce their chances of winning.
NOTE: I wrote this article after the first episode of Survivor: Cook Islands aired, so I know that Sekou was eliminated.
African-American Tribe
Nathan: Monopoly
Rebecca: Monopoly
Sekou: Monopoly, Backgammon, Chess
Stephannie: Scrabble
Sundra: Scrabble, Scattergories
Asian-American Tribe
Becky: Scrabble
Brad: Pictionary
Cao Boi: Monopoly, Risk
Jenny: Scrabble
Yul: Risk, Monopoly
Hispanic Tribe
Billy: Battleship, Dungeons and Dragons
Cecilia: Scrabble
Cristina: Pictionary, Taboo
JP: Cranium
Ozzy: Risk, Trivial Pursuit, Backgammon
White Tribe
Adam: Monopoly, Twister
Candice: Guess Who?, Cranium
Jessica: Scrabble
Jonathan: Trivial Pursuit, Chess, Clue
Parvati: Taboo, Twister
The most common games are Monopoly (6 contestants) and Scrabble (6), followed by Risk (3). Two contestants listed Backgammon, Chess, Cranium, Pictionary, Taboo, Trivial Pursuit and Twister. Listed by one contestant were Clue, Dungeons and Dragons, Guess Who?, and Scattergories.
The most interesting game listed is Dungeons and Dragons, chosen by Billy -- and this is the first time in the history of Survivor that anyone chose D&D. But it's not enough for me to choose him.
I eliminated players who only listed one game on the theory they don't have a broad enough approach to win Survivor. That decision removed 9 of the 20 competitors.
Of the remaining players, three stood out to me: Ozzy (Risk, Trivial Pursuit, Backgammon), Candice (Guess Who?, Cranium), and Jonathan (Trivial Pursuit, Chess, Clue). I eliminated Ozzy because no one who listed Risk has ever won.
Based on the history of Survivor winners, Jonathan would be more likely to triumph than would Candice. His games have been listed by winners a total of five times; hers just twice. However, the combination of a simple-but-good deduction game (Guess Who?) mixed with a multi-faceted party game (Cranium) was too good for me to pass up.
My prediction is that Candice will win Survivor: Cook Islands.
