Survivor: Pearl Islands

The seventh edition of Survivor (in the United States) is upon us. Since Survivor 3 (Africa), I've been predicting the winner based on the favorite board games listed by the contestants.

So far, my predictions have been eliminated 11th (Kim P. in Africa), 11th (Robert in Marquesas), 2nd (Tanya in Thailand), and 11th (Christy in the Amazon). That's a consistent string, with Tanya as the only oddity -- and she became very ill in the first few days of the show, so she was voted off due to that and not really because of anything she did or didn't do.

Although I have yet to predict a winner, my pick is likely to make it past the merge, and probably make it to the final six. Let's see what games the survivors love in the Pearl Islands.

DRAKE TRIBE

• Burton Roberts - Jenga
  
• Christa Hastie - Scrabble, Clue, Guess Who?
  
• Jon Dalton - Trivial Pursuit
  
• Michelle Tesauro - Scrabble
  
• Rupert Boneham - Monopoly
  
• Sandra Diaz-Twine - Scrabble, Clue, Monopoly
  
• Shawn Cohen - Rummikub
  
• Trish Dunn - Monopoly, Scattergories, Pictionary, Trouble

In the Drake Tribe, Monopoly and Scrabble are the most popular games (each is listed by three players). Clue is listed by two players, and all of the other games are listed by one.

Burton's choice of Jenga is interesting -- we'll see if he's any good at building things... Christa and Sandra may be constantly on the lookout for intrigue given their fondness for Clue... And Shawn is the first Survivor player to ever list a winner of the Spiel des Jahres (Germany's Family Game of the Year), Rummikub.

MORGAN TRIBE

• Andrew Savage - Chess
  
• Darrah Johnson - Scrabble, Monopoly, Checkers
  
• Lillian Morris - Checkers
  
• Nicole Delma - Scrabble, Trivial Pursuit, Uno, Charades
  
• Osten Taylor - Monopoly
  
• Ryan Opray - Monopoly
  
• Ryan Shoulders - Chess, Risk, Monopoly
  
• Tijuana Bradley - Chess

In the Morgan Tribe, Monopoly is the clear favorite (listed by four players, or half the tribe). Chess, which wasn't mentioned by anyone on the Drake Tribe, comes in second (listed by three players). Checkers and Scrabble each are listed twice.

Three Chess players (Andrew, Ryan and Tijuana) could make this tribe fascinating if they're always thinking ahead... And there's not much else that jumps out about the games chosen by this tribe.

ANALYSIS

Previous Survivor winners have listed Backgammon (twice), Balderdash (twice), Boggle (twice), Chess, Monopoly, Othello, Pictionary, Scrabble and True Colors as their favorite board games.

Of the games chose by the winners, only Chess, Monopoly, Pictionary and Scrabble are listed by contestants in the Pearl Islands. Monopoly may serve as a default "favorite game" for people who don't really play games -- a total of seven players listed it this time -- so I'm going to discount that as a factor.

Which means that Christa, Michelle, Sandra, Trish, Andrew, Darrah, Nicole, Ryan, and Tijuana (nine players) have each listed at least one game chosen by a previous Survivor winner. But in the Pearl Islands, history won't matter one bit -- just like it didn't in the Amazon, when Jenna won with two favorite games no other winner had ever listed (Monopoly and True Colors).

Based solely on an analysis of the players' favorite board games, my prediction for the winner of Survivor Pearl Islands is: Shawn, who listed Rummikub as his favorite game.

Even if you've never heard of the Spiel des Jahres, follow me on this. The importance of a Survivor player choosing a SdJ winner cannot be over-emphasized. In order to win the SdJ, a game also has to be great. Not just good or even very good; it has to be truly outstanding.

Every previous winner has listed at least one party game or at least one abstract game. Rummikub is, in a way, both. It's a relaxing, social game. But it requires skill in both tactics (short-term playing) and strategy (long-term playing). So, based solely on his favorite board game, Shawn's in good shape to do well in Survivor: Pearl Islands.